All the experts which have been consulted for her research agree that the interior will heat up more than coastal areas and that the number of very hot days per year will increase substantially in Namibia in years to come, says Marina Coetzee of the School of Natural Resources and Spatial Sciences, Polytechnic of Namibia.
She noted this during her presentation at last week’s 19th Rangeland Forum in Otjiwarongo when she gave an overview of the improvements in climate models over the years and their limitations. She noted that in the absence of multiple earths on which to experiment, use of mathematical models to predict future climate scenarios is necessary. “As to rainfall projections for Namibia, no pattern emerges from three ensembles, or within these ensembles. Neither the direction nor the magnitude of changes in rainfall are clear. There is also no agreement between models on changes in rainfall intensity (extreme events), dry spells, wet spells, onset and end of rainy seasons,” she concludes.