Eco-tourism to boost air traffic to Namibia - by Desie Heita
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WINDHOEK – Africa, and Namibia in particular, is set to benefit from a healthy increase in air traffic forecast for the next 20 years. Namibia has already seen a gigantic increase in air traffic over the past 10 years, thanks in part to the growth in eco-tourism combined with the world’s awakening to the country’s investment potential.
The growth was experienced at a time marked by severe turbulence in the aviation sector, starting with the effects of 2001 United States attack on the World Trade Centre and the financial crisis that followed, all of which saw the dwindling of passenger numbers.
Andrew Gordon, Market Analyst for the European aircraft manufacturer Airbus, says over the last 10 years air traffic to and from Namibia increased by 20 percent with growth in eco-tourism as the key driver.
“Eco-tourism is forecast by many to grow and become the largest contributor to Namibia’s gross domestic product in the coming years. Aviation will be an important element in enabling this vision to materialise,” says Gordon.
Gordon was part of the airbus executives visiting southern African countries, including Namibia, to make presentations on the aviation forecasts and general business conditions of Airbus.
The financial crisis made the situation hard for many airlines and numbers hit rock bottom, reaching minus levels. Premium travellers, who contribute significantly to airlines’ profitability through the expensive first class tickets, went down. Increases in fuel prices did not help matters either.
However, Gordon says, things are starting to improve and figures are pointing upwards again, much to the relief of airlines.
“We are not out of the woods yet but things are starting to turn positive,” says Gordon.
Overall growth for Africa is forecast at an average annual passenger growth rate of 5.6 percent in the next 20 years, which is above the world forecasts of 4.7 percent.
Tourism and further market liberalisation as well as increased business links with Asia would be the key drivers. Figures already indicate high traffic volumes between southern Africa and Asia.
“Africa is becoming the hub between Asia and South America and this would grow significantly in the years to come,” says Gordon, adding that an increase in inter-trade within Africa is also a contributing factor.
Forecasts show that the emerging markets of China and India would lead the world air traffic, as the two economies get richer. Gordon says research has shown that people tend to travel more when their economy improves.
It is estimated that there would be about 959 aircraft orders by 2028, of which 190 aircraft would be for national airlines in southern Africa, specifically South Africa, Mozambique, Namibia and Zambia.
Airbus is aiming to be the preferred suppliers of these aircraft, saying it has the most eco-efficient aircraft than its competitors in the aviation industry.
A report by Oxford Economics predicts that in 20 years, air transport would employ 8.5 million people worldwide and contribute US$1 trillion annually to the world’s gross domestic product (GDP). Currently, air transport contributes about US$10 billion to Africa’s GDP. It is estimated that it will be able to support six million people in the next 20 years.
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