New Era

Climate change, as we all know, is the constant increase in atmospheric temperature (global warming) together with the associated changes in other weather conditions. It is not a new phenomenon. We all feel it, experience it and see it.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that most of the observed increases in globally averaged temperatures since the mid 20th century are very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations via the greenhouse effects.

The detailed causes of the recent warming remain an active field of research, but the scientific consensus is that the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases is due to human activities which cause most of the warming observed since the start of the industrial era.

Climate variability on the other hand is limited to the natural climatic changes at specific localities, within a region or a continent on a daily, seasonal or annual basis.

Global warming or an increase in temperature is caused by the intensification of the earth's greenhouse effects whereby the temperature of the earth which has remained relatively stable for over 1 000 years, has over the last 100 years risen by 0,5 degrees Celsius, thereby causing climate change which includes changes in regional temperatures, rainfall patterns and extreme weather conditions.

Different types of processes and gases have been identified as being responsible for global warming and consequently, climate change. These are volcanic gases and dust, changes in ocean circulation, fluctuations in solar output, and increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, namely carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen trifluoride, methyl chloride and nitrogen oxide in the atmosphere.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) has been identified as the main cause and its level has increased by 30 percent within the last 200 years, with most of the increase from 1960 as a result of its emissions from industries and automobiles in the developed countries and the burning of forests in the developing countries.

This increase traps heat, thereby enhancing the earth's greenhouse effects and consequently increases global temperatures.

Methane is the second greenhouse gas (GHG) based on its amount in the atmosphere and the amount of warming it causes. It is produced from coal mining, burning of the coal, animal waste, deforestation, decaying plants, landfills, natural gas, burning of oil and other fossil fuels, as well as biomass such as forest and grass fires through slash and burn agriculture.

Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Habitats and ecosystems are currently under threat from a variety of stresses such as deforestation, spread of diseases, agricultural losses, food insecurity, desertification, freshwater losses, the sea level rising, degradation of the biophysical environment resulting from the impacts of climate change and climate variability that bring about environmental hazards such as: drought, floods of biodiversity, etc.

Furthermore, heavy dependence on biomass for energy in sub-Saharan Africa sees over 80 percent of the population depending on traditional biomass for cooking.

The key sectors that are considered most to impact climate change include agriculture, food supply and water.
Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to suffer the most not only in terms of reduced agricultural productivity and increased water insecurity, but also in increased exposure to coastal flooding and extreme climatic events, and increased risks to human health.

In order to be able to effectively address the challenges brought about by the impacts of climate change or variability and anthropogenic causes, countries could draw up sustainable development strategies to guide the process.

In Namibia, although our Parliament passed a Bill on environment management in 2007, which is showing the commitment of the government to maintaining the ecosystem and effective utilisation of natural resources, we still need a National Climate Change Policy in place, to help the country to address climate change and facilitate the attraction of investment for sustainable development projects aimed at fighting climate change.

Climate change is now recognized as an equity issue because the world's poorest people, those who contributed least to the atmospheric build-up of greenhouse gases (Africa has the world's lowest carbon emission rates), are the least equipped to deal with the negative impacts of climate change.

Wealthier nations that have historically contributed and are continuing to contribute the most to global warming through unsustainable consumption and production patterns are better able to adapt to the impacts.

There is also the alarming rise of armed conflicts related to diminishing access to natural and vital resources, internally displaced persons and migration.

These climate change challenges are exacerbated by multiple-stresses and limitations including low adaptive capacity, limited access to knowledge and technology support, extreme poverty, weak policy support, and lack of integrated approaches for strategic planning and regional cooperation.

The tragedy of climate change is the fact that whereas the north bears the largest responsibility for the causes of climate change, the south and especially Africa are the most vulnerable to the worst consequences of climate change.

However, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol to which we Africans in our respective countries are party, has given us a glimmer hope to participate in negotiations, mitigation and adaptation.

Namibia is party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol. Although Namibia does not yet have a national policy on climate change, it already set up the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) in 2001.

The NCCC's aim is to give advice to the Namibian government and people on how to reduce and adapt to climate change. Currently, Namibia is compiling a second national communication report which will be submitted to the UNFCCC.

Although Namibia does not yet have a national policy on climate change, it has already set up the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) in 2001.

The NCCC's aim is to give advice to the Namibian government and people on how to reduce and adapt to climate change. Currently, Namibia is compiling a second national communication report which will be submitted to the UNFCCC.

Why climate change concerns the global community

This rapid expansion of population worldwide and energy demand through the use of fossil fuels bears its consequences such as deforestation, habitat destruction, hunting, poaching, invasive species, population, coral breaching, erosion of biodiversity, etc. (Livre Alive)

According to the latest United Nations Population Division report, we, Homo sapiens or modern man originated 200 000 years ago and up to 1776 AD the population of the world was barely 0.79 billion and has since experienced 860 percent growth between 1750 and 2008, from 0.79 billion to 6.7 billion.

At this rate in 2050, the world population will be nine billion humans on this earth. This could be coupled with an expansion of industrialisation, massive deforestation and an increase in methane (CH4) as the polar ice continues melting.

The consequences of climate change will naturally increase as well. Natural phenomena such as solar variation combined with volcanos probably had a small warming effect from pre-industrial times to 1950 and a small cooling effect from 1950 onwards. These basic conclusions have been endorsed by at least 30 scientific societies and academies of science, including all of the national academies of the major industrialized countries.

The overwhelming majority of scientists working on climate change agreed with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's main conclusions (IPCC). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesizes thousands of published scientific work across the world to assess climate change. Their results are then ratified by decision-markers based on a consensus between science and politics.

In fact, in its most recent report in 2007, it strongly supported the view that climate change processes are accelerating, with anticipated disastrous and possibly catastrophic natural consequences on man unless important measures of mitigation and adaptation are implemented across the earth.

Based on present national trends which corroborate with global trends, global temperatures could increase to 2 and 5 degree Celsius by the end of this century if these trends continue into the future.

In fact, from 1995 to 2006 it was recorded as the hottest years since 1850 with a mean global temperature increase of 0.74 degree Celsius.

A summary of the 2007 IPCC report on the vulnerability of the African continent shows that by 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change and the yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% in some countries.

This would further adversely affect food security and exacerbate malnutrition. Towards the end of the 21st century, a projected sea level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations.

This prediction was further confirmed during the February 2009 meeting on climate change in Copenhagen, Denmark.

It was clearly demonstrated that the sea level will rise by between 90cm and 130cm by the end of this century if present trends of climate change are maintained.

The pressing question is not whether climate change is happening or not, but whether we ourselves can change fast enough, for example, the way we are monitoring the climate change, therefore, the focus of addressing the effects of climate change needs to be placed on mitigation by industrialized countries through the limitation of greenhouse gases emissions into the atmosphere with more and more people calling for a new global economy with a low carbon new economy, or low carbon energy technologies and other low-carbon goods and services.

This had been anticipated in the Kyoto Protocol by setting up the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) which advocates for the partnership between industrialized and developing countries with the participation of the private sectors.

It is equally important to note here that an adaptation approach which aims to reduce vulnerability has only drawn the necessary attention in very recent years.

But the financial resources needed for this are enormous and unaffordable by the most vulnerable developing countries with heir own resources.

Both adaptation and mitigation can complement each other and together can significantly reduce its risks if handled in a participatory manner at all levels. Thus projects combining both could foster greater commitments from local people and it will be more attractive to foreign investors.

Future perspectives and the way forward

We are today standing at a hinge moment when the values we embrace and the actions we take will shape the future for generations to come. Future prediction of climate change is difficult as some scientists are even of the opinion that there will be a turn to normal climate situations while others talk of more severe weather conditions yet to come.

We therefore look forward to:

- An interdisciplinary research involving climatologists, economists, experts in agriculture, soil scientists, sociologists, and indigenous knowledge is therefore recommended;

- An increased network of ground weather or monitoring stations enhanced by satellite data;

- An improved warning system to alert the community of imminent variations in short term climate changes through the national radio networks, TVs, local newspapers etc.

- Further monitoring of the state, and the consequences of climate change, as well as mitigation and adaptation options.

- Education and basic training, amongst others, to be seriously considered.

Finally, we are therefore, in need of a new story about our role as a generation here on earth and must unite and adapt ourselves to the increasing complexities of climate change in order to mitigate the potential irreversible impacts it is increasingly inflicting not only on humanity but also on the entire biodiversity on earth.

We have to do this to save our planet not only for ourselves, but also for our aged parents, children and grandchildren.

The upcoming generations might and will face a different reality than ours; therefore, it is our obligation to act right now because, if we fail to do so, we will be seen as the most individualistic and destructive generation in mankind's history.

It is now our responsibility to act united and to take the opportunity of the current crisis to create the new world economy as we move into the 21st century.

"Climate change is real, already happening and is caused by humans, if nothing is done the impacts will be severe and widespread." Prevention of dangerous climate change requires urgent global action to both reduce emissions and finance adaptation of those changes that are inevitable.

Back to Top