New Era

OSHAKATI â€" The populous four northern regions of Omusati, Oshana, Oshikoto and Ohangwena are set to tip the scale in favour of this weekend's winner in the Presidential and Parliamentary elections.

But equally a determining factor will be the vote of the 'born-frees' or young people born after the country's independence in 1990, whose numbers are pegged at 300Â 000.

This year's elections are unique in the sense that the country's born-free citizens will for the first time vote.

Leaders and political parties across the board have been scrambling for this crucial vote with targeted messages and promises.

Interesting though is the fact that the so-called born-frees have responded positively to the call from political parties and crowded party rallies around the country.

In fact, many of them have shown eagerness to participate in the election process and as such thousands of first-time voters are expected to flock to the polling stations today and tomorrow.

Youthful political scientist Alfredo Tjiurimo reckons that the interest shown by young voters during the campaigns stands out as one of the highlights of this year's elections.

"The involvement of the youth in politics was amazing. They attended rallies, gave speeches and that's important because elections shape futures, which is good for the youth," Tjiurimo said.

While the main contest is without doubt between the ruling party, Swapo, and debutants, Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP), this election is way lightweight compared to Namibia's first democratic election of 1989, in terms of competition between political parties.

In 1989, Swapo won 41 seats while the DTA breathed down their neck with 21 seats. The ruling party has, however, brushed off DTA's advances and emerged with two-thirds majority victories in the three consecutive elections that followed, a situation likely to be repeated this year as per predictions by political pundits.

This weekend's elections remain a litmus test for the ruling party, especially whether it would retain its majority votes, as happened in 1994, 1999, and 2004.

Apart from Swapo, much has been said about the strength of RDP and the virtual weakening of the previously sleeping giant, DTA, whose credentials are also facing a test this weekend.

"The formation of RDP had Swapo on their toes because the ruling party wants to retain its two-thirds majority and they (Swapo) are likely to get it," political commentator Graham Hopwood told New Era.

Issues

During the campaigns, Swapo's message aimed at convincing the electorate to give the party another mandate to rule the country. The ruling party's target is a clean sweep. Winning all 72 seats in Parliament, as unlikely as it is, is the party's core focus.

The party has vowed to promote peace in the country and to continue developing all sectors with a view to beat the deadline of the ambitious Vision 2030 development initiative.

The party further told the electorate about what its government has done in the past five years in all regions and for citizens, especially those classed as vulnerable.

Hopwood notes that there is a "radical change" in the campaign issues raised by the ruling party this year compared to past elections.

"In the past, Swapo spoke about history and bringing independence to Namibia. However, this time around, they spoke about important issues such as what the party did in the past and what it intends to do for citizens in the future," he said.

The opposition on the other hand have criticised several government actions, such as spending on projects deemed to be non-priorities, tackling corruption, improving education and health care among others.

Hopwood, however, opines that the political parties, especially the opposition, did not have a dominant campaign issue, but dwelled mainly on corruption.

"Corruption dominated their campaign messages, including the current Chinese issue scandal," Hopwood said.

Tjiurimo observes that crucial issues enjoyed little mention during campaigns, with parties paying more attention to attacking personalities.

"The real agendas got lost through quarrels about personalities," Tjiurimo says.

Riots

There is certainly nothing unique about this year's elections, apart from the fact that born-frees will finally exercise their political rights. Second to that are the tense confrontations that have been reported between supporters of different parties, quite a new trend in independent Namibia.

In the past, supporters would parade peacefully in their party colours and, at worst shout at their rivalries without physical violence taking place.

However, this year's campaigns saw nasty confrontations between supporters of different parties, thanks mostly but not limited to those between Swapo and RDP supporters.

Violent incidences were reported mainly in the north, with the recent one at Outapi standing out tall among others.

Others were reported in the Ohangwena and Oshana regions, and most recently Windhoek and Walvis Bay.

"The police must be commended for the good work done. But their efforts were sometimes overweighed by the fact that supporters carried weapons to political rallies," Tjiurimo says.

Several criminal charges have been opened against perpetrators of violence, especially at Outapi, Oshikuku and Ohangwena regions.

Swapo Tipped to Steal the Show

The general feeling from analysts, research organisations and press reports heavily suggests that Swapo will win the elections.

"Of course, Swapo will win comfortably, possibly with a two-thirds majority," says Hopwood, who also projected that RDP is likely to become the official opposition.

Swapo, pundits say, has enjoyed an observer status to quarrels between opposition parties who, instead of competing with Swapo, have fought among themselves for voters at times.

Swapo has enjoyed massive support from the northern regions, its stronghold, and preliminary indicators suggest the party will get good votes here.

Ohangwena Region has previously been dubbed the home ground of the RDP, since most of its leaders hail from that region, but previous by-elections did not provide enough evidence to justify the tag.

Flags of the ruling party are hoisted almost everywhere in the region, though RDP flags are also largely visible in some parts of the Ohangwena Region.

While Swapo and RDP are tipped for a competitive show in Ohangwena, the ruling party is penciled to claim major victories in the Oshana, Oshikoto and Omusati regions and these regions could tip the scale in favour of a massive Swapo win this weekend because of the huge number of voters that are domiciled here.

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